1. The views expressed are my own and not necessarily those of other Federal Reserve Board members or Federal Open Market Committee participants. Return to text
2. Staff estimate based on data from CoreLogic on 383 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). An MSA's price level is defined as having risen if its three-month percent increase exceeds 1 percent. All series are seasonally adjusted using the trend-cycle component of an ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) model. In 85 percent of MSAs, the home price increase, measured on an annualized basis, was more than 10 percent. Return to text
3. Statistics are from historical housing market data used in Robert Shiller's book Irrational Exuberance, which are updated monthly. See Robert J. Shiller (2015), Irrational Exuberance, 3rd ed., fig. 3.1 (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press). Return to text
4. See Jay Parsons (2021), "U.S. Apartment Vacancy Plunges in September to Record Low as Leave Renewals Surge," RealPage Analytics Blog, October 6, https://www.realpage.com/analytics/apartment-vacancy-plunges-lease-renewals-surge-september-2021. Return to text
5. The statistics in this paragraph are from Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia (2021), Examining Resolution of Mortgage Forbearances and Delinquencies (PDF) (Philadelphia: Philadelphia Fed, October 21). Return to text
6. See Elliot Anenberg and Tess Scharlemann (2021), "The Effect of Mortgage Forbearance on House Prices during COVID-19," FEDS Notes (Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, March 19). Return to text
7. The statistic for October 2021 is from Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia (2021) in note 5; the statistic for 2010 is from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax. Serious delinquency is defined as 90 or more days delinquent or in foreclosure. Return to text
8. See Michelle W. Bowman (2020), "The Changing Structure of Mortgage Markets and Financial Stability," speech delivered at the "Financial Stability: Stress, Contagion, and Transmission," 2020 Financial Stability Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and the Office of Financial Research, Cleveland, November 19. Return to text
9. This calculation from the Board's staff is based on data from the Conference of State Bank Supervisors, Nationwide Multistate Licensing System & Registry. Return to text
10. See Financial Stability Oversight Council (2020), 2020 Annual Report (PDF) (Washington: FSOC). Return to text
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