Data Note: A Look At Swing Voters Leading Up To The 2020 Election

Ashley Kirzinger, Audrey Kearney, Mollyann Brodie, Charlie Cook, and Amy Walter, Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation

Published: Sep 05, 2019

More than one year out from the general election, there are many factors that could influence voters’ decisions to either vote for President Trump or the Democratic nominee or even stay home on November 3, 2020. These factors include the characteristics of the eventual Democratic nominee, views of President Trump, and how motivated voters are feeling about the election. The latest analysis from the Kaiser Family Foundation, in collaboration with the Cook Political Report, finds that while a large share of voters are already firm about how they plan to vote in the 2020 presidential election (63%), there is a still a substantial share (30%) who say they have not made their minds up. With three in ten votes still up for grabs, this data note examines the demographics of swing voters: those who either report that they are undecided about their vote in 2020 or are leaning towards a candidate but haven’t made up their minds yet. It also explores the policy issues that could swing these voters to vote for either President Trump or the Democratic nominee.

Key Findings

Who are swing voters? They’re younger, more moderate, and less engaged on national politics. At least a quarter say they didn’t vote in ’16 or ’18. This @KFF / @CookPolitical analysis shows how the issues could affect their vote on #ElectionDay2020

Three in ten voters are swing voters, meaning they haven’t made up their minds about who they plan to vote for in the 2020 presidential election. While swing voters look similar to their decided counterparts on many demographics, they tend to be younger, more moderate, and less engaged on national politics. Nearly one-fourth of swing voters say they didn’t vote in the 2018 election (22%) or in the 2016 presidential election (24%).
It is important to note that not all “swing voters” could potentially change their vote to support the other party’s candidate. About half of swing voters (16% of all voters) are truly persuadable. These voters either say they are undecided about who they plan to vote for (8%) or say that while they are probably going to vote for either President Trump or the Democratic nominee, there is a chance they will vote for the other party’s candidate (8%). The other share of swing voters (14% of all voters) say that they are probably going to vote for either President Trump or the Democratic nominee and there is no chance they will vote for the other party’s candidate. While they say there is no chance they will vote for the other party’s candidate, they could choose to not vote at all. In other words, these folks may not change their minds to support another candidate, but if they don’t like what they see from the party they like, they could just stay home.
Many factors could influence voters’ decisions to either vote for President Trump or the Democratic nominee or even stay home on Election Day. This analysis finds issues like climate change, health care, immigration, or the economy could influence swing voters’ vote choice in 2020. Democrats may have the edge on three issues among swing voters: climate change (38 percentage point advantage), health care (18 percentage points), and immigration (10 percentage points) while President Trump, on the other hand, may have the edge on the economy (12 percentage points). As the 2020 presidential campaign continues, this data indicates that Democrats may benefit more when the focus is on climate change, health care, and immigration, while President Trump may have the advantage on the economy among this group of swing voters. Yet, it is important to note that if the economy slows down significantly, the edge that President Trump has on the economy may dissipate.
The issue of health care means different things to voters on different sides of the aisle. Nearly half (44%) of swing voters who prefer the Democratic nominee on health care offer responses related to increasing access to health insurance coverage as the reason why they support the Democratic nominee on this issue. Swing voters who prefer President Trump on health care do not appear to be rallying behind a single health care issue but offer varying responses. Lowering the amount people pay for health care ranks high for both sets of swing voters (19% and 16%, respectively).
Who Are The 2020 Swing Voters?

Nearly two-thirds of voters say they have already made up their minds about which candidate they plan to vote for. About one-third of voters (34%) say they are “definitely” going to vote for the Democratic nominee while three in ten (29%) say they are “definitely” going to vote for President Trump. This leaves three in ten voters as the crucial voting block known commonly as “swing voters.” This group of voters either say they are “probably” going to vote for President Trump (9%), “probably” going to vote for the Democratic nominee (13%), or say they are undecided about how they will vote (8%).

Figure 1: Three In Ten Voters Say They Have Not Made Up Their Mind About Which Candidate They Are Voting For In 2020

It is important to note that not all “swing voters” could potentially change their vote to support the other party’s candidate. Among voters who say they are probably going to vote for either President Trump or the Democratic nominee, few say there is “a chance” they will vote for the other party’s candidate. Among all voters, 5% say they will probably vote for President Trump but there is “a chance” they will vote for the Democratic nominee, while 3% of all voters say they will probably vote for the Democratic candidate but there is “a chance” they will vote for President Trump.

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