Data Note: A Look At Swing Voters Leading Up To The 2020 Election

Figure 9: Democratic Candidates Have Advantage On Climate Change, Health Care, And Immigration; President Trump Holds Edge on Economy

For the other issues included in the survey, it is less clear whether President Trump or the Democratic candidate has an advantage. The Democratic candidate has a seven percentage point edge on foreign policy while President Trump has a seven point edge on gun policy1; however these slight advantages are not statistically significant. Similar shares of swing voters say they prefer President Trump or the Democratic nominee on international trade and tariffs and taxes.

HEALTH CARE AS AN ELECTION ISSUE

When swing voters who say health care is an issue that would make them more likely to vote for Democratic candidate (50% of swing voters) are asked to say in their own words what it is about health care that could influence their vote choice, nearly half (44%) offer responses related to increasing access to health insurance coverage. This is followed by one-fifth (19%) who offer lowering the amount people pay for health care. Fewer offer responses such as: Democrats care more about health care (7%), general opposition to President Trump (7%), or support or protection of the Affordable Care Act (7%).

Figure 10: Swing Voters Offer Increasing Coverage and Lowering Health Care Costs As Motivations To Vote For The Democratic Nominee

On the other side of the ballot, when swing voters are asked to say in their own words what it is about health care that would make them more likely to vote for President Trump (32% of swing voters), they offer a variety of health care issues that could influence their vote choice. About one in six of these swing voters say lowering the amount people pay for health care (16%), free market or less government involvement (14%), opposition to the ACA (13%), or opposition to a national health plan or Medicare-for-all plan (12%) make them more likely to vote for President Trump in 2020.

Figure 11: Lowering Costs, Decreasing Government Involvement, Opposition To ACA And Medicare-for-all Are Motivations For Some Swing Voters To Vote For President Trump

Lowering the amount people pay for health care is the only health care issue that was offered by substantial shares of both swing voters who say the issue of health care makes them more likely to support President Trump (16%) and those who say it makes them more likely to vote for the Democratic nominee (19%).

APPENDIX

TOPICS

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