A vast majority of Democratic voters (85%) and most Republican voters (70%) say they aren’t going to cast a vote for the other party’s candidate. Seven in ten voters who identify as Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents say they are “definitely” going to vote for the Democratic nominee and an additional 16% say they are “probably” going to vote for the Democratic nominee and there is “no chance” they will vote for President Trump. On the other side of the aisle, six in ten Republican and Republican-leaning voters say they will “definitely” vote for President Trump with an additional 9% saying they are “probably” going to vote for President Trump and there is “no chance” they will vote for the Democratic nominee.
Table 1: Few Voters On Either Side Of Political Aisle Say There Is A Chance They Would Vote For The Other Party’s Candidate |
||||
|
Total voters |
Democratic/ Democratic-leaning voters |
Pure independent voters |
Republican and Republican-leaning voters |
Definitely voting for President Trump |
29% |
3% |
11% |
61% |
Probably going to vote for President Trump |
9 |
1 |
11 |
18 |
A chance they will vote for the Democratic nominee |
5 |
1 |
8 |
9 |
No chance they will vote for the Democratic nominee |
4 |
* |
3 |
9 |
Probably going to vote for the Democratic nominee |
13 |
20 |
11 |
6 |
A chance they will vote for President Trump |
3 |
4 |
2 |
3 |
No chance they will vote for President Trump |
9 |
16 |
8 |
3 |
Definitely voting for the Democratic nominee |
34 |
69 |
13 |
3 |
Undecided (Vol.) |
8 |
4 |
29 |
7 |
Instead of voting for the other party’s candidate, some of the voters who are leaning towards a candidate but haven’t made up their minds yet may choose to not vote in the 2020 presidential election. Nearly one-fourth of swing voters say they didn’t vote in either the 2016 presidential election (24%) or in the 2018 election (22%). A slightly larger share of Democrat swing voters (33%) say they didn’t vote in the 2016 election than both independents (23%) or Republicans (21%).
Decided Voters v. Swing Voters
On most demographics, swing voters look very similar to their counterparts (voters who say they have already decided who they are going to vote for in the 2020 election), but they differ on three key variables: age, party identification, and ideology. To see a complete demographic profile of swing voters, see the appendices.
Age
When we look at the share of demographic groups who get classified as either “swing voters” or “decide voters,” we find that about three in ten – across all socioeconomic groups such as gender, education, and urbanicity – are classified as swing voters. This is not true among the different age groups. A larger share of voters between 18 and 29 years old are “swing voters” (44%) which is nearly identical to the share of this group who are “decided voters.”
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