Party identification and ideology
Perhaps as expected, the decided voters are the more partisan voters with strong ties to party identification and less likely to self-identify as political moderates. Half of political independents have not made up their mind about who to vote for in the 2020 presidential election compared to one-fourth (24%) of Democratic voters and 31% of Republican voters. In addition, four in ten self-identified moderates are classified as “swing voters” which is much larger than the share among those who call themselves liberal (79%) or conservative (70%).
Those with less polarized views of President Trump are also more likely to be classified as “swing voters.” Most of those who either “somewhat approve” (69%) or “somewhat disapprove” (60%) of President Trump are “swing voters,” while majorities of those who either “strongly approve” (85%) or “strongly disapprove” (72%) of President Trump have already made up their minds.

Figure 5: Less Partisan Voters Are More Likely To Have Not Made Up Their Minds Yet For The 2020 Presidential Election
Overall, swing voters tend to be younger: one-fourth are between 18 and 29 years old (27%), compared to 14% of voters who have already decided on their 2020 vote choice. More than half of swing voters (56%) say they have a moderate political ideology, compared to 29% of decided voters; and smaller shares identify as Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents (37% compared to 52%).
Despite the relative similarities between swing voters and decided voters, they behave very differently towards politics and elections. Swing voters are much less likely to say they pay “a lot of attention” to what is going on in national government and politics and much less likely to say the outcome of the presidential election matters a lot than decided voters. On the other hand, voters who have decided they either are going to definitely vote for President Trump or the Democratic nominee are quite similar in how much attention they are currently paying and how important they view the outcome of the presidential election.
About four in ten (39%) of swing voters say they normally pay “a lot” of attention to what is going on in national government and politics compared to a majority of decided voters (68%).

Figure 7: Fewer Swing Voters Say They Are Paying A Lot Of Attention To National Government And Politics
There are no partisan differences among the decided voters with a majority of those who have decided they either are going to definitely vote for President Trump (70%) or the Democratic nominee (66%) saying they normally pay “a lot” of attention to national government and politics.
Table 2: Decided Voters, Across Partisanship, Report Paying More Attention To Government And Politics |
||||
|
Swing voters |
Decided voters |
Definitely |
Definitely |
A lot |
39% |
68% |
70% |
66% |
Some |
44 |
24 |
22 |
26 |
Only a little/None at all |
17 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
Similarly, swing voters are seemingly less concerned about the outcome of the presidential election. While a majority of swing voters (66%) say it “really matters who wins the 2020 presidential election,” more than one-third of swing voters say that it either “somewhat matters” (27%) or “doesn’t really matter” (7%) who wins the 2020 presidential election. The vast majority of decided voters (92%) say it “really matters who wins the 2020 presidential election.”
Once again, there are no partisan differences among those voters who have decided their 2020 vote choice. Vast majorities of voters who have decided they either are going to definitely vote for President Trump (92%) or the Democratic nominee (93%) say it “really matters who wins” the 2020 presidential election.
Table 3: Decided Voters, Across Partisanship, More Likely To Say Presidential Election Outcome Matters |
||||
|
Swing voters |
Decided voters |
Definitely |
Definitely |
Really matters who wins |
66% |
92% |
92% |
93% |
Somewhat matters who wins |
27 |
6 |
6 |
5 |
Doesn’t really matter who wins |
7 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
Which Issues Could Swing The Election?
Many factors could influence voters’ decisions to either vote for President Trump or the Democratic nominee or even stay home on Election Day. These include the characteristics of the eventual Democratic nominee, views of President Trump, and how motivated voters are feeling about the election. When swing voters were asked whether a series of different issues could persuade them to vote for President Trump or the Democratic nominee, the latest analysis finds issues like climate change, health care, immigration, or the economy could influence swing voters’ vote choice in 2020.
Democrats have the edge on three issues among swing voters: climate change, health care, and immigration. The Democratic candidate has a 38 percentage point advantage on the issue of climate change with six in ten swing voters (59%) saying the issue of climate change makes them “more likely to vote for the Democratic candidate” compared to 22% who say climate change would make them more likely to vote for President Trump. Similarly, half of swing voters say the issue of health care makes them more likely to vote for the Democratic candidate compared to 32% who say health care would make them more likely to vote for President Trump; giving the Democratic nominee an 18 percentage point advantage on this issue. The Democratic candidate also as a 10 percentage point advantage on immigration (49% v. 40%). This data suggests that during the 2020 presidential race, Democrats may benefit more when the focus is on climate change, health care, and immigration – the three issues that swing voters say could influence them to vote for the Democratic presidential candidate.
President Trump, on the other hand, may have the edge on the economy. Half of swing voters say the economy makes them more likely to vote for President Trump (48%) compared to one-third of swing voters who say it makes them more likely for the Democratic nominee (35%). So if the focus of the 2020 presidential campaign is on the economy, President Trump may have the advantage among swing voters.
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