Tags: trump

Note that all of these models forecast the presidential election based on the winner of the national two-party vote, and do not factor in third-party candidates. And they assume that a majority or plurality of the popular vote will produce the 270 electoral votes needed for victory. Those are reasonable assumptions based on the historical record but, as William Howard Taft and Al Gore would testify, not foolproof... One final point on polling-based forecasts. As rigorous and sophisticated as these models may be, they all have to work with imperfect materials. more »

"We're seeing that it doesn't matter whether you're registered as a Democrat or Republican — US adults say they are experiencing significant stress from the current election,” said Lynn Bufka, PhD, APA's associate executive director. Election stress becomes exacerbated by arguments, stories, images and video on social media that can heighten concern and frustration, particularly with thousands of comments that can range from factual to hostile or even inflammatory,” said Bufka. more »

As the demand for high-skilled workers continues to grow, American voters express relatively little confidence in either major party presidential candidate when it comes to their ability to help American workers prepare to compete in today’s economy. Among the six economic issues tested, 43% of voters say that jobs will be either the most important or the second most important issue to their vote for president more »

Stanford political scientist Andrew Hall found that contentious primaries that receive heavy media coverage and voter attention tend to produce nominees who do less well in the general election. But, if the primary has not generated much attention, then the primary winner is less affected — and sometimes even helped — in the general election. more »