By comparison, just 4% who are both dissatisfied with the state of the nation and disapprove of Obama’s job performance (45% of all voters) are planning to vote for Clinton, while 73% back Trump instead. And these three categories account for nearly all voters today: Almost no voters (just 1% of voters overall) both express satisfaction with the state of the nation and disapprove of Obama’s performance.
These patterns are similar to previous elections, with the candidate of the incumbent party garnering support from two-thirds or more voters who approved of the incumbent president – regardless of whether those voters were satisfied or dissatisfied with the state of the nation. And in 2000, the only election in which a sizable, though still small (9%), share of voters both expressed satisfaction with the state of the nation and disapproved of the president’s job performance – views of the president were stronger predictors of vote intention than satisfaction with the nation: Just 13% of this group backed Gore, little different than the 9% of support among voters who expressed both dissatisfaction with the state of the nation and disapproval of Bill Clinton’s performance.
Presidential approval a stronger indicator of voter choice than satisfaction with the country
It may seem at first glance like a political riddle: How can President Obama’s job approval rating be above 50% when only about a third of the public is satisfied with the way things are going in the country?
In a survey last month by Pew Research Center, 53% approved of Obama’s job performance while 42% disapproved. In three of four surveys since March, Obama’s job approval has been in positive territory – the first time this has occurred in more than three years.
But just 31% said they were satisfied with the way things were going in the U.S., while more than twice as many (66%) were dissatisfied. Public satisfaction with the state of the nation has been very low for many years. In fact, it has not consistently reached 50% since late in Bill Clinton’s administration.
National satisfaction and presidential job approval are both important measures of the public’s mood, but they measure different things. And when it comes to which presidential candidate people plan to vote for in November, presidential approval is a much stronger indicator than satisfaction with the state of the nation. This also was the case in 2008 and 2000, the last elections with no incumbent.
Partisanship, presidential approval and national satisfaction
Measures of national satisfaction have been in negative territory throughout Barack Obama’s presidency – as they were throughout most of the presidencies of his recent predecessors, George W. Bush and Bill Clinton. Over the course of Obama’s more than seven and a half years in office, overall public satisfaction with the state of the nation has never been higher than 34%.
But Obama’s job performance ratings have consistently outpaced levels of national satisfaction, and by wide margins – a dynamic that is not unique to Obama. Over the past quarter-century, the public has been more likely to approve of the president’s job performance than to express satisfaction with the state of the nation.
More Articles
- US Presidential Debates: Three Studies Journalists Should Know About (And The Public!)
- Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi And Donald Trump Last Year
- Data Note: A Look At Swing Voters Leading Up To The 2020 Election
- Ferida Wolff's Backyard: Swans and Duck Together; Life Ripens and Robin's Beautiful Eggs
- The Bodleian Library and Worldmapper Create a Cartogram Depicting Trump's Tweets and Countries that Dominate US President's Foreign Policy
- Alice Rivlin Spoke About Inclusive Prosperity and the Need for Political Compromise; Vox Declared "Alice Rivlin shaped every major policy debate of the past 40 years"
- Updated: The Honorable Nancy Pelosi: "Between the inevitable and the Unconceivable" ... "The Mueller Report will be released" “The President’s sham emergency declaration and unlawful transfers of funds have undermined our democracy"
- Health and Human Services Office of Inspector General: Many Children Separated from Parents, Guardians Before Ms. L. v. Ice Court Order and Some Separations Continue
- Southwest Border Security: CBP Is Evaluating Designs and Locations for Border Barriers but Is Proceeding Without Key Information
- Cities, States Resist — and Assist — Senate Hearing on Immigration Crackdown in New Ways and Reunification of Migrant Families