Pew Research Center, October, 2022, “Midterm Voting Intentions Are Divided, Economic Gloom Persists"
With the overall midterm preferences of registered voters closely divided, nearly identical majorities of voters for candidates in both parties say they are “extremely” or “very” motivated to vote in the midterms; 80% of Republican backers say they are highly motivated, as do 79% of Democratic backers.
However, Republican voters are far more likely than Democratic voters to say they have “given a lot of thought” to the upcoming congressional elections (49% vs. 38%).
Overall, 65% of registered voters say it “really matters” which party wins control of Congress, including 76% of those who support Republican candidates and 72% of those who support Democrats. This is roughly on par with the 2018 midterms, when 66% of voters – including 74% of Republican voters and 75% of Democratic voters – said the outcome really mattered in a survey conducted about a month before the elections.
Among voters who are uncertain, or support another party’s candidates, just 28% say it really matters which party controls Congress. This group of voters is much less likely than Republican and Democratic voters to say they are motivated to vote and to report giving a lot of thought to the election.
Other important findings from the survey
Biden job approval in historical context. Currently, 38% of adults approve of Joe Biden’s job performance, while 59% disapprove. Biden’s approval rating is identical to Donald Trump’s at a comparable point in his presidency and lower than those of other recent presidents. (For more on evaluations of Biden compared with previous presidents, see “Biden’s job rating is similar to Trump’s but lower than that of other recent presidents.”)
Which party will control Congress? As was the case during past election campaigns, Republican and Democratic voters expect their parties will be successful after the Nov. 8 election. However, Republicans are more bullish than Democrats: 88% of those who support Republican candidates say their party will win a majority in the House, while 86% expect the GOP to gain a majority in the Senate. Among voters who favor Democratic candidates, 69% say their party will retain their House majority and somewhat more (74%) expect Democrats to retain control of the Senate.
Vast differences between Republican and Democratic voters on race, gender, other issues. Wide partisan differences in political attitudes are nothing new, but they are particularly striking when viewed by midterm voting preferences. For example, 79% of registered voters who favor Republican candidates say White people derive little or no benefit from societal advantages that Black people do not have; just 10% of Democratic voters say the same. And 76% of GOP voters – compared with 20% of Democratic voters – say the obstacles that have hindered women’s progress are now largely gone.
Candidates get low marks for explaining plans. Just 23% of registered voters say Republican candidates have done extremely or very well explaining their plans for the country, while 19% say the same about Democratic candidates.
While large majorities of voters in both parties say the opposing party has not done well in explaining their plans, fewer than half of voters who support Republicans (39%) say GOP candidates have done extremely or very well in explaining their plans; just 32% of Democratic voters say the same about Democratic candidates.