Moving and Retirement

May 30, 2022; Governor Christopher J. Waller At the Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS) Distinguished Lecture, Goethe University Frankfurt, Germany: To sum up, the relationship between vacancies and unemployment gives me reason to hope that policy tightening in current circumstances can tame inflation without causing a sharp increase in unemployment. Of course, the path of the economy depends on many factors, including how the Ukraine war and COVID-19 evolve. From this discussion, I am left optimistic that the strong labor market can handle higher rates without a significant increase in unemployment. more »

"Officials from the seven Colorado River basin states agreed ... with a federal plan to sharply cut releases from Lake Powell, as both groups scramble to protect water supplies and power generation by propping up the lake’s level. The states were responding to a proposal two weeks ago from Tanya Trujillo, an assistant secretary for water and science for the Interior Department, to withhold almost a half-million acre-feet to address “critically-low elevations over the next 24 months” at Lake Powell and Lake Mead." more »

"I have argued that cryptocurrencies may be creating a movement toward non-uniform currency in the U.S. — a system that society has disliked historically. In the pre-Civil War era, the majority of the U.S. money supply consisted of privately issued banknotes. Publications listed and frequently updated the going exchange rates for different currencies in particular locations. Similar to today’s global currency system, the pre-Civil War era was characterized by exchange rate chaos, with currencies constantly fluctuating against one another. People didn’t like that system, and a uniform currency was implemented in the U.S. during the Civil War. But cryptocurrencies may unwittingly be pushing us back in the direction of a non-uniform currency system." more »

"When inflation broke loose in March 2021, even though I had expected it to run above 2 percent in 2021 and 2022, I never thought it would reach the very high levels we have seen in recent months. Indeed, I expected it would eventually fade, due to the nature of these shocks. All the suspected drivers of this surge in inflation appeared to be temporary: the one-time stimulus from fiscal policy, supply chain shocks that previous experience indicated would ease soon, and a surge in demand for goods. In addition, we had very accommodative monetary policy that I believed would end in 2022. The issue in my mind was whether these factors would start fading away later in 2021 or in 2022." more »