Does the specter of terrorism favor conservative or liberal politicians in the minds of those polled?
In general, the specter of terrorism benefits conservative more than liberal politicians. Conservative positions on a variety of issues, including national defense, military funding and immigration, are more popular during periods of heightened terror threat. Further, conservative politicians are more likely to support militant foreign policy positions than liberals, while liberals are more likely to support diplomatic solutions. These policy orientations lead conservatives to gain increased support during times of heightened security concern.
That said, if Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic nomination, the effects of the threat of terrorism in the 2016 general election could be more complex. Clinton's extensive State Department experience and facility with foreign policy could neutralize a conservative advantage on terror policy. The result could be that the effects of the terror threats on the 2016 general election are a wash.
The threat of terrorism could conceivably have its greatest electoral impact on the 2016 Democratic primaries, where Clinton could pull support from Bernie Sanders as a result of the issue's prominence. However, it is also the case that Democratic voters tend to report lower concern about terrorism than either Republican or Independent voters, so it might require further escalation of the threat of terrorism in the US for Clinton to gain support from the issue.
Is terrorism more important than the economy to voters?
Overall, it is not. Many more elections are determined by perceptions of candidates' economic policies than their anti-terror policies. However, when terror threats are especially strong, they can be as impactful as any issue, even more impactful than the economy. Terrorism is the sort of issue that can have an outsized impact because it taps into our most fundamental fears and concerns. Support for President George W. Bush's handling of the economy increased 18 percent following the 9/11 attacks. This is an astonishing figure considering that Bush was, appropriately, focused almost entirely on non-economic issues following the attacks, but one which shows how much more important terrorism can be following threats; it has the power to even shape views of economic policy.
It is impossible to say at this time which of these issues will be more prominent in the 2016 election, but history would suggest we should bet on the economy.
How could the threat of terrorism affect Donald Trump's presidential candidacy?
The rise of the terrorism issue has potentially powerful implications for Trump's candidacy. As recently as last month, many analysts suggested we had already witnessed "peak Trump" – that his candidacy couldn't gain greater support because of the outrageousness and xenophobia of his rhetoric. But this may have underestimated the potential for an issue like terrorism to increase the viability of a candidate like Trump who is associated with patriotism, militant foreign policy and opposition to immigration, all positions that are favored more following terror threats.
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