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By Clifton B. Parker

Terrorism typically ratchets up nationalistic impulses in presidential campaigns, a Stanford sociologist says.

But which candidate benefits from this dynamic is more nuanced than most political observers realize, said Robb Willer, a Stanford professor of sociology. Stanford News Service interviewed him recently about how terrorism may impact the 2016 presidential campaign, which has all challengers and no incumbent vying for the nation's top office.

What does research say about how the war on terror will influence presidential elections?

Probably the most reliable finding from research on the political impact of terrorism is that the threat of terrorism increases support for standing leaders. This is one example of a larger dynamic called the rally-around-the-flag effect, or simply, rally effect. A rally effect occurs when war, terrorism or some other security threat leads citizens to support incumbent leaders more. For example, I found in this study that between 2001 and 2004 governmental announcements of terror threats to the US tended to lead to significant increases in President George W. Bush's approval rating. The support Bush derived from the threat of terror and his policy responses to it likely played a key role in his reelection in 2004.

The takeaway for incumbents is that their support will go up — potentially to a tremendous extent — following terror threats if their policies on terrorism are viewed positively or at least neutrally. But they also risk losing support if their policies are viewed negatively. For example, support for President Jimmy Carter initially rose following the 1979 attack on the US embassy in Iran, but subsequently fell as his handling of the hostage crisis came to be viewed negatively, finally contributing to his loss to Ronald Reagan in the 1980 presidential election. Generally, incumbents get the benefit of the doubt following security events, but they risk big losses if they are seen as ineffective in fighting the threat.

In your opinion, how might the ISIS threat play out in this year's presidential election?

My own take is that terror threats have two main psychological effects. First, they sharpen national boundaries and increase nationalist spirit. This drives the rally-around-the-flag effect. In the context of an election, this means that the candidates who will derive the most increased support from such threats are those seen as unambiguously patriotic, who support national symbols and who support maintaining and/or restoring America's global standing.

Secondly, terror threats increase fundamental security concerns. This leads to greater support for leaders who are seen as most able and motivated to defend the nation. So, candidates who are perceived to be associated with strong foreign policy, who support the military and who take positions seen as likely to reduce the threat will be supported more. Candidates who are not as clearly pro-military, who do not project a strong and powerful persona or who are seen as backing policies that could compromise national security risk losing favor in such periods.

But in understanding the impact of terror threats on the 2016 election, we are to a great extent in uncharted territory. Most past research has focused on views of incumbents. And there is good reason to think that whatever advantage an incumbent experiences does not necessarily transfer to candidates of the same party. For example, we found in a large-scale experiment in 2008 that presenting Americans with a news report about the threat of terrorism led to decreased support for Sen. John McCain among political moderates. The support Bush derived from terrorism in 2004 did not extend to McCain in 2008, though this may have been in part because the conservative-led Iraq War had become very unpopular by 2008.

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