All things considered, support for the Republicans and political energy among independents is closely linked to disillusionment with Obama's policies and the president himself. Fully 69% of independent voters who say Obama's policies have made the economy worse favor the Republican candidate in their district — and 80% say they will definitely vote. Disapproval of the president's job performance, anger at the federal government and opposition to the health care legislation also are closely associated with support for Republican candidates. Independents who express these views also are highly likely to vote.
Conversely, support for Obama and his policies is strongly associated with independents' support for Democratic candidates; in fact, 73% of independents who say Obama's policies have improved the economy plan to vote Democratic. But far fewer of those who express this opinion say they will definitely vote compared with independents who take a negative view of the impact of Obama's policies (63% vs. 80%).
Independent Voters: Diverse Groups with Divergent Views
While this study and other surveys measure the "independent vote," there is a considerable degree of diversity among independents, which is not surprising given that most are relatively recent refugees from the two major parties. This survey identifies four groups of independent voters that are distinguished by their basic political beliefs —two groups that favor Republican candidates, one that favors Democratic and another that only leans Democratic:
Shadow Republicans (26% of independent voters) are strongly anti-government, but they are somewhat less critical of the political system than are the Disaffecteds, the other-GOP-leaning group of independents. Shadow Republicans are relatively affluent and well-educated, older and male. They support the Republican candidate in their district by 66% to 18%. Fully 79% say they will definitely vote in November, which is about the same as among GOP partisans (83%). As many Shadow Republicans as Republican voters agree with the Tea Party. But they have mixed opinions of the Republican Party — just 52% have a favorable view of the GOP.
Disaffecteds (16% of independent voters) have been hard hit by the recession and are highly financially stressed. Anti-government and anti-politician, these quick to anger blue-collar voters have been mainstays of Pew Research typology groupings for decades. Disaffecteds divided their votes between Obama and McCain in 2008; today, 50% of Disaffecteds say Obama's policies have made the economy worse and 60% disapprove of the health care bill enacted earlier this year.
Shadow Democrats (21% of independent voters) hold positive views of government and are not very critical of the political system. They support Obama and his policies, and have very positive views of the Democratic Party. Shadow Democrats are younger than other independent groups and are racially and ethnically diverse — a quarter are black or Hispanic. Shadow Democrats support Democratic candidates by as large a margin as the two GOP-leaning groups favor Republican candidates.
Doubting Democrats (20% of independent voters) are not especially anti-government, but they are deeply anti-business and are highly critical of elected officials and both political parties. In many respects, they are as cynical as the Disaffecteds. Doubting Democrats are less affluent and less racially and ethnically diverse than are Shadow Democrats. While they voted for Obama over McCain by a wide margin, they are now critical of Obama and the Democratic Party. Just 23% of Doubting Democrats say Obama's policies have made economic conditions better — only about half the proportion of Shadow Democrats and Democratic voters (50% each). As many Doubting Democrats say the Republican Party can better reduce the deficit as say the Democratic Party.
There also is a fifth group of independent voters, the Disengaged (17% of independent voters), which is disproportionately made up of younger and less educated people. For the most part, the Disengaged are essentially political bystanders — just 21% say they definitely will vote this fall, far and away the lowest percentage among the independent groups.
How Independents Have Changed
Independents today are clearly more conservative than they were four years ago, particularly with respect to the role of government. Not only do more describe themselves as conservative, but more support smaller government, and there is more distrust and anger toward government generally.
While this ideological tide among independents benefits the GOP, there is a broader rejection of the party in power that also is influencing independent support for Republican candidates. Given their detachment from the parties and general skepticism about politics, independents' views of president's and the parties' performance can and do change quickly. In this regard, the independent swing toward the GOP in 2010 has as much, if not more, to do with views of performance than with shifting ideological preferences.
Currently, independent voters rate the parties about evenly when it comes to which one could better improve the job situation (40% Republican Party, 35% Democratic Party). Four years ago, the Democrats led by 19 points (43% to 24%) as the party better able to improve the job situation. Independents views of which party can better reduce the deficit have flipped since 2006 — the Republican Party is now favored by 15 points; in 2006, the Democrats led by 28 points.
On perhaps the most important measure of performance — managing the government —more independent voters currently now say the Republican Party could do better, by 42% to 31%. In 2006, by about the same margin (38% to 26%), more independent voters said the Democratic Party could better manage the federal government.
The Republican Party now gets about the same favorable rating among independent voters as does the Democratic Party (45% vs. 44%). Four years ago, 46% of independent voters viewed the Democratic Party favorably compared with just 36% who had a favorable opinion of the GOP.
More generally, independent voters are even more dissatisfied with national conditions than they were in 2006. Fully 76% of independent voters say they are not satisfied with the way things are going in the country, up from 67% four years ago.
Independents & the Tea Party
About as many registered voters say they agree with the Tea Party movement as disagree (29% vs. 26%).
Independent voters are more likely to say they agree with the Tea Party movement than disagree (by 30% to 22%).
Among likely voters, more agree than disagree with the Tea Party (36% vs. 29%).
And among independent likely voters, 39% agree with the Tea Party, compared with 26% who disagree.
Other Important Findings
- The proportion of independent voters or non-partisans is now at 37%, one of the highest levels in the past 20 years of Pew Research Center polling. The share of independent voters has grown from 34% of registered voters in 2008.
- The Democratic Party's advantage in party identification among registered voters has narrowed from a 10-point gap last year to a five-point gap in 2010 as Democrats have lost adherents and the Republican Party has gained supporters.
- There has been little change in voting intentions over the course of the year. Registered voters have been closely divided in their preferences, while Republicans have enjoyed an advantage among voters most likely to cast a ballot in November.
- As in previous midterms, older independents are more likely to vote Republican than are voters younger than age 50, and independent men are much more inclined to cast a GOP ballot than they were four years ago.
- Obama's job approval rating among independent voters stands at just 39%; 50% disapprove of the president's job performance. Still, Obama's rating among independent voters is higher than George W. Bush's was in September 2006 (29% approve/57% disapprove).
Continue reading the full report at people-press.org.
Copyright © 2010 Pew Research Center
More Articles
- States Flubbed the Rollout of Their Health Insurance Exchanges. Now They’re Ready to Try Again
- Frontline: How "Obamacare" Became a Symbol of America's Divide | Divided States of America
- In Minnesota, Democratic Grandmothers Gather Data About Their Neighbors
- Culture and Political Watch, The Spirit of Compromise: Why Governing Demands It and Campaigning Undermines It
- Dolores Huerta, Medal of Freedom Winner
- Progressives Talk Politics, and Protest Politicians
- Rekindling Their Power: The Comeback Governors of California, Iowa and Oregon
- Pew Research Looks At Older, 'Attentive' Americans and Opposition to Ryan Medicare Plan
- Main-Street Republicans, Hard-Pressed Democrats, Bystanders and Post Moderns: The Political Typology
- A White House Message: Women's History Month and Paycheck Fairness Act