Uncharacteristically, independent voters, who typically are not highly engaged by midterm elections, are now more likely than Democrats to say they are giving a lot of thought to this one. And they are about as likely as Democrats to say they definitely will vote; during the fall of 2006, far more Democrats than independents said they definitely would vote.
The relatively high level of independent engagement this year has come among those who plan to vote Republican. Fully 64% of independents who plan to vote for the Republican in their district are giving a lot of thought to the election, compared with just 40% of independents who plan to vote for a Democrat.
Independents' voting preferences have changed considerably since the last two elections. Just two years ago, Obama held an eight-point lead among independents, according to exit polls by the National Election Pool. The shift since the 2006 midterm, when Democrats held an 18-point advantage among independents, according to the exit polls, has been even more dramatic.
The propensity of independents to reject both parties in a relatively short period of time may in part reflect the fact that the ranks of independents have swelled in recent years with voters who have rejected party labels themselves. Underscoring the fluidity in party identification, many of today's independents were themselves partisans not so long ago. More than half of independents say they have been a Democrat (23%), a Republican (22%), or both (9%), in the past five years.
Independents are the largest group of voters — 37% of registered voters are independents or other non-partisans, 34% are Democrats and 29% are Republicans. Just two years ago, 34% were independents, while 38% of voters identified as Democrats and 28% as Republicans.
Independents have mixed views of which party can do better on major issues — but are distrustful of both. When asked why they are independents, fully 64% cite as a major reason that "both parties care more about special interests than about average Americans." And 53% point to a lack of trust in either party as a major reason why they think of themselves as an independent in politics.
While the survey finds indications that independents will vote Republican this year, they do not have a strong allegiance to the GOP. Rather, they are motivated by highly negative feelings about the government's performance and harsh judgments about the political status quo. Just 35% express approval of their own congressional representative, and they are as likely as Republicans to say that their own incumbent does not deserve reelection. But unlike Republicans and Democrats, a majority of independents say that which party controls Congress will not be a factor in their vote.
By 44% to 29%, more independent voters say the Republican Party rather than the Democratic Party can better reduce the budget deficit; the GOP also now leads by a 42%-to-31% margin among independent voters as better able to manage the federal government. Yet far more independents (49%) say the Democratic Party "is more concerned with the needs of people like me" than say that about the GOP (32%). And on the important dimension of which party can bring about the changes the country needs, as many prefer the Democratic Party (37%) as the Republican Party (36%).
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