In fact, Medicare’s finances have worsened since he took office, and economic growth is not expected to help the program as much as he claims:
- The latest Medicare trustees report says the Medicare Part A trust fund, which covers payments to hospitals, will run out of money by 2026, three years earlier than projected just last year. That’s partly because the tax cut law that Trump signed last year will reduce Medicare revenues and increase expenses.
- Medicare remains on an unsustainable path. The annual cost for all four parts of Medicare — including physician payments and prescription drugs — is expected to more than double from $710 billion in 2017 to $1.44 trillion in 2027, and general revenues will increase as a share of Medicare financing from 41 percent in 2017 to 49 percent in 2032.
- The Congressional Budget Office in April estimated that economic growth could increase allpayroll tax revenues, including Social Security, by $92 billion over the next 10 years. That’s far short of Trump’s $700 billion figure, which he said was just for Medicare.
Financial Outlook Worsens
Trump made claims about strengthening Medicare — the health insurance program for senior citizens and the disabled — several times over the course of three days in early September.
In remarks at the White House on Sept. 5, Trump boasted that “we have done more as an administration than any other administration in already less than two years,” including on health care. “We’re saving Medicare,” he said.
A day later, while campaigning in Montana for Republican Senate candidate Matt Rosendale, Trump said, “Matt Rosendale is going to make sure we’re not touching your Social Security and your Medicare is only going one way. That’s stronger.”
On Sept. 7, the president made the specific claim about the impact of economic growth on Medicare. His remarks came at a fundraiser for GOP Rep. Kristi Noem, who is running for governor of South Dakota against Democrat Billie Sutton. The winner will replace outgoing Republican Gov. Dennis Daugaard.
Trump, Sept. 7: Medicare will be $700 billion stronger over the next decade thanks to our growth. And I will tell you that Billie Sutton, and people like Billie Sutton, Democrats with a very strong liberal leaning, they’re going to destroy your Medicare and they’re going to destroy your Social Security. I’m leaving your social — it’s going to be left alone, your Social Security will be left alone. We’re not touching your Social [Security], we’re just going to make it stronger. We’re going to make the country stronger. We pay for things through growth. The way we’re growing right now will be able to pay for things that nobody thought possible. Remember during debates they’d say, “How are you going to do it?” I said, “We’re going to do it through growth.”
Medicare and budget experts we contacted said Medicare’s financial outlook has worsened and economic growth is not expected to provide much help.